The framework
Eight stages of careful thought
Each stage isolates one source of belief, so you can examine it on its own terms before combining them into a decision. The goal isn't certainty — it's clarity about what kind of confidence you actually have.
- 01
Perception
Direct evidenceWhat you directly observe
What do you observe?
Stick to what you can actually observe — not interpretation.
- 02
Memory
RecallWhat you remember
What do you remember from past experience?
Memory is reconstructive. Note when something is uncertain.
- 03
Testimony
SourcesWhat others have told you
What have you been told? Who said it?
Name the source. Unverified testimony is weak evidence.
- 04
Reason
LogicYour logical chain
What is your core argument? Walk through the logic step by step.
Use 'because' and 'therefore' to make the chain explicit.
- 05
Assumptions & Inference
AssumptionsConclusions and the assumptions bridging them
What are you assuming? What conclusions follow?
Every gap between evidence and conclusion is an assumption.
- 06
Structure
FramingHow it fits the bigger picture
How does this fit the wider system or context?
Zoom out. What else is connected to this decision?
- 07
Knowledge
Prior knowledgeKnow vs. believe vs. guess
What do you actually know vs. believe vs. guess?
Be honest. Most 'knowing' is actually believing.
- 08
Skepticism
Self-criticismWhat a thoughtful critic would say
What could be wrong? What's the strongest counter-argument?
If you can't argue against it, you don't yet understand it.
How scoring works
Each stage scores 0–10 based on depth, specificity, and the presence of stage-appropriate signals (named sources for testimony, explicit assumptions for inference, counter-arguments for skepticism). Reason, inference and skepticism are weighted higher. Confidence is penalised when skepticism or inference are weak — strong reasoning without strong self-criticism is not a high-confidence belief.